DYNAMICS OF THE BALANCE OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD COMMODITIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINING FACTORS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Alya Fardila Izati; Damar Panji Mahesa; Devina Aulia; Dina Maefani Putri; Maria Dende

doi:10.58174/ijimes.v1i9.132

Authors

Alya Fardila Izati Universitas Pamulang
Damar Panji Mahesa Universitas Pamulang
Devina Aulia Universitas Pamulang
Dina Maefani Putri Universitas Pamulang
Maria Dende Universitas Pamulang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58174/ijimes.v1i9.132

Keywords:

Gold Commodities, Demand and Supply, Gold Prices, Price Determining Factors.

Abstract

Gold is a strategic commodity that has a dual role as a global financial asset as well as the most reliable safe haven instrument in conditions of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This study aims to systematically analyze the dynamics of the balance between demand and supply of gold commodities and identify the factors that determine gold prices in the framework of international trade using a quantitative descriptive approach based on secondary data. The factors studied include the safe haven function, the movement of the United States Dollar exchange rate, real interest rates, global central bank behavior, jewelry industry demand, and the transformation of gold trade through digital platforms. The results of the analysis show that gold prices in the long term move in line with investment demand driven by global macroeconomic uncertainty, while in the short term price dynamics are more determined by market sentiment and investor expectations. Historical data confirm that every 1% increase in the global inflation rate on average drives gold prices up by 0.8%, and every 1% weakening of the US Dollar correlates with a 1.2% increase in gold prices. The digital transformation in gold trading through online trading platforms has increased the liquidity and accessibility of the gold market for retail investors globally, but at the same time presents higher volatility risks. The findings of this study provide important implications for investors, monetary policymakers, and stakeholders in the gold commodity industry at the national and international levels.

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